New research reveals that burning the remaining global fossil fuel reserves will release 3.5 trillion tones of greenhouse gas emissions. The estimation is seven times the carbon budget to cap heating levels at 1.5C.
Global fossil fuel reserves and predictions
Since the industrial revolution, human activity is mainly powered by coal, gas, and oil. This has led to global warming under 1.2 degrees Celcius, bringing fierce storms, floods, and droughts along with rising sea levels. According to the United Nations, the remaining earth’s carbon budget is estimated to be about 3.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. This is equal to nine years in terms of current emission levels. The global carbon budget is how much more pollution we can create before we cross the 1.5C temperature goal.
Last year’s UN annual production gap assessment revealed that governments are planning to burn over twice the amount of fossil fuels by 2030 which will be consistent with the recommended levels. However, there has been no global comprehensive inventory of the remaining reserves. The Global Registry of Fossil Fuels is seeking to provide more clarity on gas, oil, and coal reserves. This will help in filling knowledge gaps on the supply and help policymakers in managing the phaseouts.
More on the global registry
The global registry on fossil fuels has individual emissions on oil, coal, and gas projects. Out of the 50,000 fields, the most potent source was in Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar oil field. It churns out about 525 million tons of emissions annually. Sites in the Gulf and Russia were among the top 12 polluting sites. “We have very little time to address the remaining carbon budget. As long as we’re not measuring what is being produced, it’s incredibly hard to measure or regulate that production,” stated Rebecca Brynes. Brynes is the Deputy Director of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty and helped in compiling the global registry.
“This just demonstrates that it is a global challenge and many countries that are major producers but aren’t as democratic as the US for example — that’s where transparency comes in. We’re not kidding ourselves that the registry will overnight result in sort of a massive governance regime on fossil fuels. But it sheds a light on where fossil fuel production is happening to investors and other actors to hold their governments to account,” added Brynes.