Biden’s Struggles Ignite Speculation
US President Joe Biden’s underwhelming performance in the presidential debate against challenger Donald Trump has reignited discussions about the implications if he were to step down as the Democratic nominee at the last minute. Such a scenario would be unprecedented in modern American election history. Here’s a look at how replacing the 81-year-old could unfold.
What happens if a candidate withdraws?
To formally designate a nominee, delegates from all 50 states attend their party’s summer nominating convention, where a candidate is officially chosen based on primary voting results. Biden overwhelmingly secured primary votes, and the party’s roughly 3,900 delegates heading to the convention in Chicago this August are pledged to him. If Biden exits, these delegates would need to select a replacement, reminiscent of the days when party bosses chose nominees through backroom deals and multiple voting rounds.
A historical parallel occurred on March 31, 1968, when President Lyndon Johnson announced his decision not to seek re-election amidst the Vietnam War. This unexpected move turned that year’s convention, also in Chicago, into a political crisis with protests and internal party conflict.
Selecting a new nominee
If a candidate must step down after being officially nominated at the convention, the party’s governing body, the Democratic National Committee or Republican National Committee, would nominate a new candidate in an extraordinary session.
Potential replacements
So far, Democrats have publicly supported Biden, with former President Barack Obama defending him. When asked about the possibility of Biden stepping aside, campaign communication director Michael Tyler stated there were “no conversations about that whatsoever.”
A natural, but not automatic, choice to replace Biden would be his running mate, Vice President Kamala Harris. After Biden’s lackluster debate performance, the 59-year-old Harris acknowledged that Biden had been “slow to start” but had “finished strong.”
Other potential candidates include strong Democratic politicians like Governors Gavin Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
No independent candidate currently poses a significant threat to the two-party system
While speculation about a strong third-party candidate continues, no independent candidate currently poses a significant threat to the two-party system. In 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot, running as an independent, won nearly 19 percent of the popular vote but failed to secure any Electoral College votes, which ultimately decide the winner.
Biden’s debate performance has opened up discussions about the future of his candidacy. While Democrats publicly rally around their nominee, the potential for unprecedented developments looms large in the 2024 presidential race.
