The warmest June on record has been followed by an early July with ten of the hottest days on record. Simultaneous heat waves are smothering the United States, much of Europe, and parts of Asia, as El Nino deepens in the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic waters near Florida reach a historic 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32.2 degrees Celsius). It’s already enough to put 2023 on track to be the hottest year on record since record-keeping began in the 1800s.
Since October 2019, the research nonprofit Berkeley Earth has been studying each month’s global temperatures and forecasting the year’s overall heat ranking. Its most recent analysis, published on July 11, discovered “a fairly high chance – above 80% at this point – that 2023 will be the warmest year on record,” says Zeke Hausfather, a Berkeley Earth climate scientist. In January, researchers will complete their yearly temperature rankings. The hottest year on record is currently a tie between 2016 and 2020.
Long-term climate observers see the summer’s fast rate of temperature records as a dismal pattern that is unlikely to be broken. “I’ve been expecting this for 20 years,” says Camille Parmesan, a professor at the National Center for Scientific Research and an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report author. “This is just going to keep happening given that we’re not reducing emissions.”
Rising emissions drive record heat; El Nino reveals future impact
Because of rising greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, the Earth has already warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius since the preindustrial era. This has resulted in a clear trend: according to NOAA, 22 of the last 23 years have been the hottest on record. Climate experts have repeatedly cautioned that the only way to reverse this trend is for humans to drastically reduce their carbon footprint, mostly by abandoning fossil fuels. (www.newslive.com)
The aforementioned El Nino, the first in nearly four years, is one of the elements driving this year’s unprecedented temperatures. The Pacific basin encompasses one-third of the earth and is affected by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, which causes the ocean’s temperatures to oscillate between cold and warm phases. This year began in the La Nina phase before transitioning to El Nino in June.
“Every time we have an El Nino event, we get a small peek into the future. This is what is going to be the new normal for the climate in 5 to 10 years if our emissions keep at current levels and don’t decrease rapidly,” Hausfather says. “So we’re going to have slightly higher than normal temperatures this year and next, but long-term climate change is going to quickly push the planet to these levels of heat all the time.”
Climate change intensifies extreme weather events; El Nino becoming stronger
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense as climate change worsens, and this summer is no different. Heat waves have hit Japan, India, and the United States, which has also been hit by disastrous flooding in the Northeast. Drought has gripped Europe in the aftermath of the Mediterranean’s record-breaking spring heat. Canada is dealing with out-of-control wildfires that have engulfed millions of people across North America in deadly smoke.
El Ninos are another sort of extreme event that has become more often in recent decades as a result of climate change. “Since 1950, El Ninos have been significantly stronger than at any other time from 1400 to 1950,” Parmesan says, referencing a 2021 IPCC study she helped author.
“We haven’t had an El Nino event at this level of global warming,” says Brown University’s climate scientist, Kim Cobb. “Maybe that’s an obvious statement but I think it still needs to be said.” The implication is we don’t really know what’s in store, Cobb warns, adding that the El Nino is only just beginning “and it’s forecast to get quite a bit stronger.”
