The former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Robert Redfield, has predicted that the next pandemic might stem from bird flu. Recently, the World Health Organization reported the first human fatality from bird flu in Mexico, and the virus has also been detected in cattle throughout the US.
In late May, the CDC identified the third case of a person diagnosed with bird flu since March
“I really do think it’s very likely that we will, at some time, It’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic,” Redfield told NewsNation on Friday. He also mentioned that the mortality rate from bird flu would likely be significantly higher than that of COVID-19.
While COVID-19 had a mortality rate of 0.6 percent, Redfield stated that the bird flu mortality rate would likely be “somewhere between 25 and 50 percent.”
In late May, the CDC identified the third case of a person diagnosed with bird flu since March, as reported by The Hill. The three cases were found in farmworkers and were unrelated, with symptoms such as a cough and pink eye.
More than 40 cattle herds have tested positive for the virus
There is no evidence to suggest that the virus is currently spreading between humans. Researchers have discovered that five amino acids need to alter their key receptor for bird flu to attach to a human receptor. This change would enable the virus to spread between humans similar to Covid-19. “Once the virus gains the ability to attach to the human receptor and then go human to human, that’s when you’re going to have the pandemic,” Redfield told NewsNation. “I think it’s just a matter of time,” he added. Redfield mentioned that he is uncertain about how long it will take for the necessary amino acids to change, but he expressed concern about the virus being detected in cattle across the country.
More than 40 cattle herds have tested positive for the virus. The CDC is monitoring wastewater treatment sites to identify the virus’s location but has stated that the current risk to the public remains low. While cattle are often near pigs, and the virus can potentially transfer from pigs to humans, Redfield highlighted a greater risk: the virus could be engineered in a laboratory.
“I know exactly what amino acids I have to change because in 2012, against my recommendation, the scientists that did these experiments actually published them,” he told NewsNation. “So, the recipe for how to make bird flu highly infectious for humans is already out there.”
