A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters warns that Earth’s geographic North and South poles could migrate by as much as 89 feet by the end of the century due to climate-driven ice melt.
As Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets—and, to a lesser extent, mountain glaciers—shed vast quantities of water, the redistribution of ocean mass is expected to nudge the planet’s rotation axis, displacing the poles.
“This effect somewhat surpasses the effect of glacial isostatic adjustment, which is the solid Earth rebound after the last ice age,” said co-author Mostafa Kiani Shahvandi, an Earth scientist at the University of Vienna.
In other words, the weight of ice-age glaciers once depressed Earth’s crust, and their melting caused the land to rebound. The new research suggests modern ice loss may exert an even greater influence on pole shifts.
Wobbling world: Mass distribution and axis movement
Earth’s rotation axis experiences a predictable “wobble” whenever the distribution of mass across the planet changes, whether from shifting ocean currents, atmospheric pressure variations, or tectonic processes. The ETH Zurich–led team examined historical pole movements between 1900 and 2018 alongside future projections of ice-sheet and glacier melt to quantify how accelerated warming could drive further movement.
Under a high-emissions scenario, the North Pole is projected to drift westward by nearly 90 feet from its 1900 position by 2100. Even in a moderate warming outcome, the pole could still shift by about 39 feet.
Implications for navigation and satellites
Changes in the geographic poles hold practical consequences. “Earth’s rotation axis is used in part to map a spacecraft’s location,” the study notes, meaning that both satellite tracking and spacecraft navigation systems, which rely on precise pole coordinates, may require ongoing adjustments to account for the shifting axis.
By demonstrating that human-driven ice loss could rival, or even exceed, the natural geological forces of past millennia, the research underscores the far-reaching geophysical impacts of climate change—and the need to prepare critical infrastructure for a world in motion.
