Could Trump be impeached by the new Democratic House? Yes, a simple majority vote would do it, but removing him would take two-thirds of the Senate. With Democrats on course for about 54 Senate seats, conviction would need at least 13 Republican votes if all 100 senators vote.
That is the question hanging over Tuesday’s results. Impeachment of Trump and his Cabinet officials is “not off the table,” the AP reported after Democrats won both chambers.
Any Democratic-led effort has to wait, though. The new House takes its seats at noon on Jan. 3, 2027. Until then, the current Republican-led House sits.
Two chambers, two very different thresholds
The Constitution splits the job in two. Article I gives the House “the sole Power of Impeachment.” It gives the Senate “the sole Power to try all Impeachments,” according to the National Archives transcript.
The House step is the easier one. The House adopts articles of impeachment “by simple majority vote,” its own history office says. It then names members as managers to argue the case in the Senate.
The Senate bar is far higher. The Chief Justice presides when a president is on trial. The text then sets the threshold: “no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.”
The penalty stops at removal from office and disqualification from holding federal office again. A convicted official can still face ordinary criminal charges. Article II, Section 4 covers “The President, Vice President and all civil Officers,” for “Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
The Senate math: 13 Republicans at minimum
As of 12:43 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, NBC News had Democrats at 54 Senate seats and Republicans at 44. Mississippi and Alaska were still uncalled. Republicans held both seats going in, as our midterm results piece explains, so the new Senate will have between 54 and 56 Democrats.
Our arithmetic runs as follows. Two-thirds of a full 100-member Senate is 67 votes. If Democrats hold 54 seats and all vote to convict, they need 13 Republicans. If they win both uncalled races, they need 11.
The phrase “Members present” matters at the margins. If only 98 senators vote, the bar drops to 66. Two-thirds of 98 is 65.3, and a fraction of a senator cannot vote.
The House is a different picture. A full House of 435 needs 218 votes for a majority. NBC News had already projected 236 Democratic seats, with 53 races uncalled at 12:43 p.m. House Democrats could impeach without a single Republican vote, as long as they stay largely united.
What Trump’s first two trials show
The two earlier Trump cases set the realistic range. On Dec. 18, 2019, the House adopted the first article, abuse of power, by 230 to 197. One member voted present.
The second article, obstruction of Congress, passed 229 to 198. No Republican voted for either article, according to the House Clerk’s roll calls.
The Senate acquitted Trump on Feb. 5, 2020. The abuse of power charge failed 48 guilty to 52 not guilty, NPR reported. The obstruction charge failed 47 to 53.
Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah was the only Republican to vote guilty, and only on the first article.
The second case moved faster. The House impeached Trump for “incitement of insurrection” on Jan. 13, 2021, by 232 to 197. Ten Republicans voted yes.
The Senate voted 57 to 43 to convict on Feb. 13, 2021. That was 10 votes short of 67, NPR reported.
Seven Republicans voted guilty: Richard Burr, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Romney, Ben Sasse and Pat Toomey. Collins lost her seat on Tuesday.
Put those numbers side by side. The most Republican senators ever to vote to convict Trump is seven. A conviction in the new Senate would need at least 13, nearly double that record.
Cabinet officials can be impeached too
Article II covers “all civil Officers,” and that includes Cabinet secretaries. The House has impeached two, the House history office lists. They were Secretary of War William Belknap in 1876 and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024.
The Mayorkas case is the most recent template. The House impeached him on Feb. 13, 2024, by 214 to 213.
The Senate held no trial. It dismissed the charges as unconstitutional on April 17, 2024, the House history office says.
That route is getting attention now. A resolution introduced this fall would impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over alleged unauthorized military operations, TIME reported. “It’s got a bigger chance of getting a stronger bipartisan vote,” Rep. Adam Smith of Washington told TIME.
The AP also named Hegseth and Elon Musk among possible targets for investigations.
What Democrats and Republicans have said
Democratic leaders are not committing either way. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined an interview but told TIME that Democrats “haven’t ruled anything out.” In September he told ABC News, “We haven’t ruled anything in, and we haven’t ruled anything out,” Newsweek reported.
TIME’s Nik Popli and Julia Terruso found the party split. “If we make Donald Trump the center of our focus, we will lose this moment in history,” said Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey. Sen. Adam Schiff of California, a House manager in Trump’s first trial, said, “We’re going to need to see where the country is.”
Rep. Ro Khanna of California sees it differently. “The base will also demand it,” he told TIME.
Smith, in a TIME interview published Monday, put it plainly: “I think we have to try, even if it doesn’t succeed.” TIME also noted that a slight majority in an October NBC News Decision Desk poll backed impeaching Trump again.
Republicans predicted this fight long before Tuesday. At a House Republican retreat on Jan. 6, Trump said Democrats would “find a reason to impeach me,” PBS NewsHour reported.
Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas went further on the All-In podcast. “I believe the House will impeach Donald Trump if they have the House,” he said, according to Newsweek. The post-election reports we read carried no impeachment response from Republican congressional leaders.
Democrats have been here before. TIME pointed out that party leaders talked down impeachment after winning the House in 2018, then began proceedings a year later. The president’s party usually loses House seats in midterms, so that tension recurs.
The new Congress convenes at noon on Jan. 3, 2027, the date set by the 20th Amendment. Only from then could a Democratic majority bring articles of impeachment to a House vote.
