NASA revises impact probability for asteroid 2024 YR4
The likelihood of a large asteroid striking Earth has decreased after NASA initially reported a record-high impact probability for an object of its size. Asteroid 2024 YR4, which is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 100 meters) in width, now has a 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032, the space agency confirmed.
Previous concerns over impact probability
Earlier this week, NASA assessed the impact probability at 3.1%, marking the highest recorded risk level for an asteroid of this magnitude. However, ongoing observations have led scientists to adjust their calculations, reducing the probability.
Potential impact zones and consequences
Although it remains too early to determine an exact impact site, the United Kingdom is not currently within the predicted “impact risk corridor,” according to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN). The corridor extends across the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
Scientists warn that if 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, it could cause “severe blast damage” up to 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact site. Meanwhile, there is also a 0.8% chance that the asteroid could impact the Moon, according to NASA’s latest data.
Ongoing observations and future assessments
Experts anticipate that the impact probability will continue to evolve as more observations are conducted. The asteroid was first discovered in December 2024 by a telescope in Chile, and astronomers worldwide are closely monitoring its trajectory to refine impact predictions further.
NASA and global space agencies will continue tracking 2024 YR4 to assess any changes in its projected path and potential risk to Earth.
