Under Xi Jinping, the People’s Liberation Army has reached a point where a campaign to invade Taiwan looks possible. Here’s more on the issue.
Can China take Taiwan by force?
The People’s Liberation Army is reaching a point where a campaign for seizing Taiwan seems possible. However, officials and experts monitoring China’s military disagree about the invasion. Especially following the trouble Russia is facing by invading Ukraine. “When people talk about whether or not China can or cannot do it, they’re talking about something different, the level of operational cost — the loss of ships, casualties — that China would have to pay to do it,” stated Oriana Skylar Mastro. Mastro is a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
Mastro argues that American policymakers are underestimating China’s willingness to use force. “They could do it. It’s just that given Taiwan’s defenses and given if the United States can come to Taiwan’s aid, how much of a bloody battle is this going to be?” she stated. According to the island defense ministry, Beijing wants to send a message seeking “a cross-strait resolution by force instead of peaceful means”. “There are different assessments. But what matters is whether China thinks they can do it, not whether we think they can do it,” added Mastro. She is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Here’s the expert opinion on the possibility of invasion
However, the question of how close the Chinese Army is to an invasion is unclear. As per A 2021 Pentagon annual report, the Army is building up to the biggest navy in terms of the number of vessels. According to the report, “an attempt to invade Taiwan would likely strain PRC’s armed forces and invite international intervention”. Additionally, the report adds that if Chinese forces make it to the Taiwanese shore, urban warfare difficulties “make an amphibious invasion of Taiwan a significant political and military risk for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party”.
In addition to the report, studies by the US Naval War College are indicating that China may fall short of the skills and equipment required for a credible invasion. As per Dennis J. Blasko, they are lacking “the capacity to execute a large-scale assault on Taiwan“. Blasko is a retired lieutenant. Very few doubt China is improving its warfare skills. Hence, Taiwan is building up its defenses. On Monday, during the 95th founding anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army. the official Liberation Army Daily stressed Xi’s goal. Xi is hoping to achieve the key parts of military modernization by 2027.