China’s population has decreased for the first time in the past 60 years. The year 2022 saw a significant shift in the country’s population that signalled the beginning of a protracted period of population loss. According to Reuters, this is the start of significant ramifications for the country’s economy. The decline, which is thought to be the worst since the catastrophic famine in China in 1961, may cause Beijing’s neighbour India to surpass China as the world’s most populous country this year.
According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2022, the country’s population will have decreased by almost 850,000 to 1.41175 billion. According to long-term projections made by UN experts, by 2050, the population will have decreased by 109 million. Compared to a previous decline forecast for 2019, this is a three-fold increase.
Demographers predict that the population fall might mean that “China will get old before it gets rich”
The country’s birth rate dropped from 7.52 births in 2021 to 6.77 births per 1,000 people last year. In contrast to this, China saw a high of 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people in 2022, compared to 7.18 deaths per 1,000 people in 2021. According to Reuters, the fatality rate in 2022 was the highest since the Cultural Revolution of 1974. This decline has been attributed to China’s one-child rule, which was in place from 1980 to 2015. In addition, the responsibility is placed on the expensive child-rearing and schooling in recent years.
Demographers predict that the population fall might mean that “China will get old before it gets rich”. Reuters quotes demographer Yi Fuxian as saying, “China’s demographic and economic outlook is much bleaker than expected. China will have to adjust its social, economic, defence and foreign policies.”
