Germany has entered politically unfamiliar territory after the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, emerged as the biggest party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
The AfD won 43.8% of the vote and 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament, according to preliminary final results. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, finished a distant second with 17.2% and 15 seats. The turnout was exceptionally high, at roughly 77%.
The result is historic because it marks the first time since the end of World War II that a far-right party has finished first in a German state election. But the AfD did not win enough seats for an outright majority, meaning the harder question begins now: can it actually govern?
Why is the Saxony-Anhalt result historic?
The AfD’s victory is a major break with Germany’s postwar political tradition.
For decades, mainstream German parties have maintained a political firewall, known as the “Brandmauer,” against cooperation with the far right. That barrier has helped keep the AfD outside state and federal governments even as the party has steadily expanded its support.
Saxony-Anhalt changes the equation.
The AfD’s 43.8% result is more than double its 2021 vote share and gives it a commanding position in the 83-seat legislature. It is still three seats short of the 42 required for an outright majority.
Can the AfD form a government on its own?
Not yet.
Although it won the most votes, the AfD does not control enough seats to govern alone. Other major parties have repeatedly said they will not enter a coalition with the AfD.
That leaves Saxony-Anhalt facing complicated coalition negotiations.
The CDU has also ruled out working with the AfD. A fragmented parliament could therefore produce an unusual governing arrangement involving several parties, or potentially leave the AfD as the largest opposition force despite its first-place finish.
AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund has nevertheless presented the result as a mandate to govern.
Who is Ulrich Siegmund?
Siegmund, 35, led the AfD campaign in Saxony-Anhalt and has emerged as the public face of the party’s breakthrough.
A former entrepreneur and salesman with a large social-media following, he campaigned heavily on immigration, nationalism, education and cultural issues.
He has portrayed himself as a more approachable face for the party while defending policies that critics describe as radical.
After the election, Siegmund said the AfD had “made history” and argued that its success was part of a broader political shift across Germany.
What does the AfD want to change on immigration?
Immigration was one of the party’s strongest campaign issues.
The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt campaigned for what it described as a “remigration and deportation offensive” targeting irregular migrants.
Its broader program calls for tougher border controls, increased deportations and a fundamentally different approach to asylum and migration.
These proposals have become central to the party’s appeal in eastern Germany, where concerns over immigration intersect with broader dissatisfaction over the national government’s policies.
The party’s critics argue that some versions of its “remigration” concept go beyond removing people without legal residency and could threaten the rights of citizens with migrant backgrounds.
What does the AfD want to change in schools?
Education could become one of the most politically contentious areas if the AfD gains governing power.
The party has called for a more explicitly patriotic approach to education and wants changes to the way German history is taught.
Siegmund has criticized what he considers excessive emphasis on the country’s Nazi past, while the party has proposed reshaping history education toward what it describes as a more balanced or positive view of German history.
That proposal is particularly sensitive in Germany because education about Nazi Germany and the Holocaust is closely connected to the country’s postwar democratic culture and its commitment to confronting its historical crimes.
The AfD has also campaigned against the display of LGBTQ pride symbols in public schools.
Why is the AfD’s extremism classification important?
The AfD’s rise is taking place despite the party’s controversial status with Germany’s domestic intelligence authorities.
The AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt branch has been classified by the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization since 2023. Authorities have cited what they describe as anti-democratic and ethnically exclusionary elements in the branch’s political ideology.
That designation does not mean the party has been banned or that all of its voters support extremist ideas.
It does, however, explain why established parties have treated cooperation with the AfD as politically and constitutionally sensitive.
The AfD rejects the extremist characterization.
Why did voters in Saxony-Anhalt back the AfD?
The result cannot be explained by immigration alone.
Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany’s poorer states and has experienced major population loss since reunification. Many voters continue to feel that eastern Germany has not caught up economically or politically with the western states.
The region has also experienced long-term frustrations over wages, jobs, demographic decline and the perceived lack of influence of eastern Germans in national institutions.
The AfD has successfully combined those economic grievances with opposition to immigration and dissatisfaction with the federal government.
That combination helped the party expand well beyond its traditional protest-vote base.
What does the result mean for Friedrich Merz?
For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the election is a serious political setback.
His CDU had governed Saxony-Anhalt since 2002, but its support collapsed to around 17%, its worst result in the state since reunification.
The result also undermines Merz’s strategy of containing the AfD through tougher mainstream conservative policies.
If the CDU cannot prevent the AfD from becoming the dominant political force in major regional contests, pressure could grow inside the party over how aggressively it should confront the far right and how much it should shift toward AfD issues, particularly immigration.
That is a difficult balancing act because moving too far toward the AfD could weaken the very political firewall the CDU says it wants to preserve.
Could this change German politics beyond Saxony-Anhalt?
Very likely.
State governments in Germany have meaningful authority over areas including education, culture and parts of domestic security policy. A successful AfD-led government would therefore give the party an opportunity to demonstrate its policies in practice rather than simply campaign on them.
That could have major implications for voters elsewhere.
The result also arrives ahead of the next round of important state elections, meaning other parties now have a real-world example of what an AfD breakthrough can look like.
For the AfD, Saxony-Anhalt could become a launchpad for its ambitions ahead of Germany’s 2029 federal election.
Could the AfD influence national policy even without governing?
Yes.
A party does not need to control the federal government to reshape the political debate.
The AfD’s electoral gains are already forcing mainstream parties to spend more political energy addressing issues such as migration, national identity, crime, energy policy and relations with Russia.
A strong result in a regional election can also strengthen a party’s fundraising, recruitment, media profile and ability to attract voters in subsequent contests.
The larger the AfD becomes, the harder it is for other parties to treat it as a temporary protest movement.
What about Germany’s relationship with Russia and Ukraine?
The AfD’s rise also has foreign-policy implications.
The party has generally taken a more Russia-friendly position than Germany’s mainstream parties and has opposed continued military support for Ukraine.
AfD leaders have criticized sanctions against Russia and called for a reassessment of Germany’s approach to the war.
A state government would have limited authority over national foreign policy, which remains primarily a federal matter. But an AfD victory could still increase the party’s influence over Germany’s wider political debate about NATO, Ukraine and relations with Moscow.
Does the result mean Germany has moved sharply to the far right?
It certainly demonstrates a major shift in parts of the electorate, particularly in eastern Germany.
But one state election should not be treated as a complete picture of Germany.
The AfD’s strongest support remains concentrated in parts of the east, while the party has a more complex relationship with voters in western states. In Saxony-Anhalt itself, voters also supported several other parties, and the AfD remains dependent on a fragmented parliament to translate its vote share into executive power.
The result is therefore historic, but it is not the same thing as an AfD takeover of Germany.
Why is the CDU refusing to work with the AfD?
The CDU’s refusal is rooted in the postwar German principle of keeping extremist political forces outside government.
Germany’s history under Adolf Hitler has made the boundaries between democratic conservatism and anti-democratic extremism unusually important in its political culture.
Mainstream parties argue that entering coalition with the AfD would normalize a party that domestic intelligence agencies classify as right-wing extremist in several states.
At the same time, the electoral math is becoming increasingly uncomfortable. The stronger the AfD becomes, the harder it is for other parties to govern without finding some alternative coalition formula.
What happens next in Saxony-Anhalt?
The immediate focus will be coalition negotiations and the composition of the next state government.
The AfD has 39 seats, while 42 are needed for an outright majority. Other parties have signaled that they do not want to form a coalition with it, creating the possibility of a complicated alliance designed primarily to keep the AfD out of government.
Whatever happens next, the political effect of the election is already clear.
The AfD has demonstrated that it can become the dominant party in a German state.
That changes the question facing Germany. The debate is no longer simply about whether the far right can win votes. It is about whether the country’s political system can continue keeping the far right away from executive power as its electoral support grows.
