Conclave to select new pontiff expected to favor centrist, doctrinally clear leadership
With the death of Pope Francis at age 88, the Roman Catholic Church now turns to the College of Cardinals to choose his successor — a decision that could reshape the global faith’s future and signal a shift away from the progressive legacy of the late pontiff.
Francis, the first pope from the Americas, led the Church’s 1.4 billion faithful for 12 transformative years. His openness to LGBTQ Catholics and his move to limit the traditional Latin Mass were hallmarks of his tenure, drawing sharp criticism from traditionalists and fueling speculation that his successor will steer the Church toward a more centrist theological course.
“Whoever is elected will be of a centrally conservative disposition; after 12 years of Pope Francis ‘stirring things up,’” said Serenhedd James, editor of The Catholic Herald. “I think the cardinals will want someone who will take a different, calmer approach.”
Cardinals to gather in historic Vatican conclave
Within 20 days of Francis’s passing, 120 cardinals under the age of 80 — the “princes of the Church” eligible to vote — will convene at the Vatican. The conclave will follow centuries-old ritual: four ballots per day, eventually narrowing the field to two leading candidates if no clear majority emerges. A two-thirds vote is required to elect the next pope.
Father Patrick Mary Briscoe, editor of Our Sunday Visitor, believes the Church is poised for a renewed focus on internal governance and doctrinal clarity. “The next pontiff will bring a renewed clarity of doctrine to the Church and focus more internally,” he said.
Francis, who reshaped the makeup of the College of Cardinals during his reign, may still wield influence from beyond the grave. Father Briscoe noted that many of the cardinals are “extremely familiar with each other,” and that Francis extended the tenure of Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, 91, as dean of the college — a position from which he could exert quiet influence over the outcome.
Top candidates span continents and ideologies
Vatican analysts Gaetano Masciullo, Edward Pentin, and Diane Montagna of The College of Cardinals Report have identified six leading contenders from across the globe, each offering a distinct vision for the Church’s future.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67—Philippines
A former head of Caritas International, Tagle has been seen as a protégé of Pope Francis. However, alleged administrative “shortcomings” during his time at Caritas may have dimmed his prospects. Known for progressive theological views, Tagle has said universal moral principles might “not apply in all situations,” particularly regarding communion for non-sacramentally married couples and LGBTQ issues.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70—Italy
As the Vatican’s Secretary of State, Parolin brings deep diplomatic experience and a reputation for cautious pragmatism. He has supported engagement with China — a controversial move among conservatives — but retains traditionalist leanings on other matters. Analysts rate his election chances as “high.”
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66—France
Aveline, reportedly a favorite of Francis, is regarded as intellectual and pastoral. His advocacy for decentralizing Church authority and his popularity among left-leaning clerical circles have made him a formidable, though divisive, candidate. Masciullo described him as a “dangerous contender.”
Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk, 71—Netherlands
A medical doctor and theologian, Eijk is a staunch defender of Church doctrine. He opposes same-sex blessings, gender transition therapies, and the ordination of women — positions likely to appeal to conservative factions. His reputation as an efficient administrator strengthens his profile.
Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77—Sri Lanka
The Archbishop of Colombo could become the first South Asian pope. Closely aligned with the doctrinal conservatism of Pope Benedict XVI, Ranjith is also known for his advocacy on behalf of the poor and his concern for environmental issues. His candidacy resonates with Catholics in Asia, a region where the faith is growing rapidly.
Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79—Guinea
A former senior Vatican official, Sarah is deeply traditional and a vocal critic of several Francis-era reforms, particularly those affecting the Latin Mass and LGBTQ blessings. His election would mark the first African pope since the early centuries of the Church. Sarah’s orthodox stance has made him a favorite among conservative Catholics worldwide.
Could the next pope be someone unexpected?
Technically, any baptized male Catholic is eligible for the papacy, though canon law requires that a non-cleric be ordained as bishop before assuming the office. Still, experts say the election of someone outside the College of Cardinals is extremely unlikely.
“The odds of someone other than a cardinal being elected … are lower than a snowball’s chance in hell,” said Christopher Bellitto, a history professor at Kean University. “The last time the Vatican did that was in 1294, and they got Celestine V, who resigned and whom Dante placed at the doorway of hell.”
As the Church enters this pivotal moment, all eyes now turn to the Sistine Chapel, where the red-robed cardinals will deliberate in sacred secrecy to choose the 267th successor to St. Peter.
