The NBA on Monday named Kalshi and Polymarket its “Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges.” It also signed an information-sharing pact with the federal regulator that oversees them. For a fan, buying a “yes” on a team to win tonight works much like a bet. Legally it is a federally regulated derivative, and whether your state can stop it depends on where you live.
That gap matters because prediction markets reach places sportsbooks can’t. They are “essentially available in all 50 states,” the Associated Press reported. They also accept 18-year-olds, while most state-licensed sportsbooks require users to be 21.
What the NBA signed on Monday
The league’s announcement, dated Oct. 26, gives both exchanges rights to NBA logos and U.S. marketing. They also get official league data from Sportradar “to operate and settle authorized NBA-related markets.” The deals run for multiple years, the AP reported, but financial terms were not disclosed.
Neither company gets exclusivity. The NBA expanded its DraftKings deal to cover prediction markets and said more partners would follow “in the coming weeks.” A source told Front Office Sports that Novig should finalize a deal later this week.
Scott Kaufman-Ross, the NBA’s head of media distribution and partnerships, cast it as a choice between oversight and none. “If you’re going to be betting on our games or trading on our games or playing fantasy around our games, it’s better for it to be regulated than unregulated,” he told the AP.
The NBA is the third major league to sign a pact with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Chairman Michael Selig said in the CFTC’s statement that the league “joins the MLB and NHL.” That leaves the NFL as the biggest holdout, Front Office Sports noted.
The CFTC pact is a promise to talk, not a rulebook
We read the memorandum of understanding the CFTC posted. It names a contact person on each side. The parties “will endeavor to share information, upon request” about the integrity of NBA games and the markets built on them.
It binds neither side. The memo says it does not “create any legally binding rights or obligations.” Sharing “shall be at the sole discretion of each Party,” and either side can exit with 30 days’ written notice.
What the league gains is a channel. The NBA may pass CFTC information to its Board of Governors. Both sides expect wider sharing when the league is running an active integrity investigation. The binding duties sit in the commercial contracts with Kalshi and Polymarket, which the league has not published.
A trade on a game, and how it differs from a bet
A prediction market sells yes-or-no contracts that pay a fixed amount, usually $1. The CFTC’s own explainer uses a 70-cent “yes” on rain tomorrow. If it rains, the buyer collects $1, a 30-cent profit. If it doesn’t, the 70 cents is gone.
Swap the weather for a game and the experience is close to a sportsbook moneyline. The legal difference is who sits on the other side. A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the opposite side, so it keeps what bettors lose. On an exchange, users trade with one another and the platform takes a commission, NBC News explained.
That structure is why the CFTC treats these contracts as “swaps,” a derivative governed by the Commodity Exchange Act. On Oct. 9 it proposed a rule that would write sports, political and cultural contracts into the swap definition. Political contracts include markets like the odds on Israel’s next election. Selig called them “commodity derivatives squarely within the CFTC’s regulatory remit.”
The same day, the agency issued an interim rule saying sportsbook wagers and casino games are not swaps. “Casino-style gambling products are not derivatives,” Selig said. The CFTC’s line rests on market structure, not on what the contract predicts.
States see it the other way. Forty-four state attorneys general told the CFTC in July that it has no authority over sports event contracts, CNBC reported. To them, a contract on who wins a game is a sports bet, and sports betting is state business.
Is it legal where you live? Courts are split
Federal appeals courts disagree. In April, the 3rd Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey.
The 9th Circuit ruled for Nevada on Aug. 28. On Sept. 25 the 6th Circuit held that Ohio and Tennessee can apply their gambling laws to Kalshi’s sports contracts, CNBC reported.
New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to settle it, and the NFL urged the justices this month to weigh in. More than a dozen states are now in litigation over prediction markets, the AP reported.
Some fights have already cut off sports contracts. On Sept. 2 a Michigan judge ordered Kalshi to geofence its sports contracts from anyone in the state, Spectrum News reported. Violations can cost up to $500,000 a day.
In January a Suffolk County Superior Court judge ruled that Kalshi can’t offer sports contracts in Massachusetts without a license, NBC News reported.
Utah and New York want the money back
Utah, one of two states that ban all gambling, has won once and sued again. Federal Judge Robert Shelby ruled in August that Utah can enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi.
On Oct. 20, Attorney General Derek Brown sued Kalshi and two Susquehanna trading firms in state court in Salt Lake City, the Deseret News reported. The state puts Kalshi’s fees from Utah accounts at roughly $30 million to $61 million.
New York’s case is the largest by dollar figure. Attorney General Letitia James sued Kalshi in Manhattan on July 31, CNBC reported. The state estimates penalties could reach $36 billion.
“No matter what they call themselves, prediction markets like Kalshi are gambling platforms, plain and simple,” James said. The CFTC has gone to court to block New York’s enforcement.
Kalshi says states have no say. “Kalshi answers to federal law, and no single state should have a veto over it,” spokesperson Jacki McGavick told the Deseret News.
Why 18-year-olds can sign up
Age is where the two systems differ most for a typical fan. Kalshi’s help center says users must “be 18 years or older.” Most states that license sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings require 21, NBC News reported.
The NBA objected to that gap before it signed these deals. In a letter to the CFTC this spring, it asked for a minimum age of 21 for all sports. Trading “carries material risks (e.g., of financial loss) that may be particularly acute for younger individuals,” the league wrote, NBC reported. Monday’s announcement did not mention age.
The league plans a responsible gaming campaign this season with the National Council on Problem Gambling. Its release points anyone worried about their gambling, or a relative’s, to the National Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-MY-RESET, free and open 24/7.
What the integrity rules cover, and what they don’t
The NBA’s release lists three safeguards. They are “limitations on permissible markets,” a trading ban for league and team personnel, and duties to share information on suspicious trading. Kaufman-Ross told the AP the league “will have the right to approve the types of markets that are available on our games.”
The AP expects those limits to track rules the NBA gave sportsbooks this month. Those rules ban markets on the first stat of a game and the opening tip. They also ban “unders” on players unlikely to play more than a few minutes.
The league is acting after a run of betting scandals. Former player Jontay Porter pleaded guilty in 2024 over a gambling scheme. Federal prosecutors charged Terry Rozier and Chauncey Billups in October 2025 over prop-bet rigging and rigged poker games. Malik Beasley, the subject of a separate investigation, is reportedly negotiating a plea deal, The Verge noted, citing The Athletic.
Those cases ran through sportsbooks, where the NBA already had monitoring deals. The new contracts extend that tip line to exchanges. They don’t decide who regulates the markets, or whether your state can ban them.
The next markers are close. The CFTC is taking public comments on its swap proposal. The Supreme Court has yet to say whether it will hear New Jersey’s case.
