Control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms comes down to about seven states. Republicans hold the chamber 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats on Tuesday, November 3, to take a majority. A gain of three would leave a 50-50 split, and Vice President JD Vance would break ties for Republicans.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan forecaster, rates seven Senate races as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Six of those seats are held by Republicans and one, Michigan, by Democrats, Forbes reported on October 23.
Here’s where the closest races stand ten days out, and what the national mood looks like.
The House decides investigations and subpoenas. The Senate decides who serves. It confirms federal judges, Cabinet secretaries and ambassadors, so a Democratic majority could block or slow President Donald Trump’s nominees for his final two years.
Most bills also need 60 votes to get past a Senate filibuster, so neither party would get a free hand with a narrow majority. Trump would keep his veto either way.
The House is a separate fight. Democrats need a net gain of three seats there, NBC News reports. We broke down the 10 House races that could decide control earlier this month.
Maine: Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson
Republican Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in the only state with a competitive Senate race that Kamala Harris won in 2024, the Associated Press noted.
Her opponent changed midway through the year. Graham Platner won the Democratic primary in June, then withdrew in July after a sexual assault allegation, which he denies. Maine Democrats picked Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president, at a convention on July 25, ABC News reported.
Polls have stayed within a few points. Maine uses ranked-choice voting, so if no candidate wins a majority of first choices, the count can take several days.
Ohio: Jon Husted vs. Sherrod Brown
This is a special election for the seat Vance left to become vice president. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Jon Husted to it, and the winner serves until 2028.
Democrat Sherrod Brown, who lost his old Senate seat by about 3 points in 2024 while Trump carried Ohio by 11, is trying to come back. A CNN poll released October 8 had Brown ahead 49% to 43% among likely voters, Political Wire noted. Other recent polls have been closer. Ohio’s governor’s race has its own drama, as Vivek Ramaswamy’s ad featuring Amy Acton’s mother showed.
Michigan: Mike Rogers vs. Abdul El-Sayed
Michigan is the one Democratic-held toss-up, an open seat after Democrat Gary Peters chose not to run again. Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, won the Democratic primary in August. Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, narrowly lost Michigan’s 2024 Senate race.
A Marist poll released October 21 had El-Sayed at 50% and Rogers at 48%, inside the margin of error, according to 270toWin’s poll tracker.
Kansas: Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton
Kansas hasn’t had a Democratic senator since 1939. Cook moved Republican Roger Marshall’s race to toss-up on October 6.
His challenger, Adam Hamilton, is the pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, a Methodist megachurch in Leawood, and won an 11-candidate Democratic primary in August, KCUR reported.
Beyond Kansas, Cook also rates Republican Dan Sullivan’s Alaska seat and the open Republican seats in Iowa and Texas as toss-ups. A Democratic win in any of them would make a majority much easier to reach.
The races leaning one way
Three more states could still matter. On October 6, Cook moved North Carolina, an open Republican seat, to Likely Democratic, with former Gov. Roy Cooper running against Republican Michael Whatley. It moved New Hampshire, an open Democratic seat contested by Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John E. Sununu, to Lean Democratic, The Hill reported.
In Georgia, Cook rates Democrat Jon Ossoff’s seat Likely Democratic, Axios reported.
What the national polls say
The national mood has been tough for Republicans. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published October 19 put Trump’s approval at 31% of US adults, the lowest of either of his terms, Al Jazeera reported. In the same poll, 47% of registered voters said they would back Democrats for Congress and 35% Republicans.
Prices sit at the center of it. In an Ipsos poll from August 28 to 31, 47% of registered voters called the cost of living the single most important factor in their vote, and 71% of US adults disapproved of Trump’s handling of it.
The war with Iran is the other big issue. Trump ordered strikes on Iran with Israel in February, and gasoline prices jumped. An AP-NORC poll taken October 8 to 12 found that about 8 in 10 registered voters want the next Congress to make lowering costs a top priority, and about 7 in 10 want it to prioritize ending the Iran conflict, according to the AP. Only about 2 in 10 said supporting Trump’s agenda should be a top priority.
National numbers don’t decide individual Senate races, though. Most of the toss-ups are in states Trump won comfortably in 2024.
When will we know who controls the Senate?
Polls close on the evening of November 3, and many races will be called that night. Close ones can take days, especially in states that count large numbers of mail ballots after Election Day, or in Maine if ranked-choice counting is needed. Many Democrats are also voting in person this year instead of by mail, which could change how quickly early leads shift.
Media projections aren’t official results. States certify their counts in the weeks after the vote. For a refresher on how the midterms work, see our guide to the House, Senate and what’s at stake.
