No confirmed US or Israeli strikes on Iran have resumed. But three things happened within a day that point toward a decision soon after the November 3 midterms.
Iran says it hit seven tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight. The State Department ordered non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia. And two news outlets report that US and Israeli planners have prepared new strikes.
For Americans, the effects so far are higher oil prices and new travel warnings across the Gulf. Brent crude rose 2.6% to $111.66 a barrel on Thursday after touching a five-month high, the Associated Press reported.
Iran’s seven-tanker claim is not independently confirmed
Iranian state television said Thursday that seven oil tankers caught fire or suffered damage in the strait overnight. It cited the Revolutionary Guard navy. Four caught fire and three hit naval mines, NPR reported from Iranian state media. The AP said it couldn’t independently confirm the claims, and the Iranian report mentioned no casualties.
The best independent record is the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre, a British military monitor. As of Thursday afternoon US Eastern time, its public incident list had no notice matching Iran’s overnight claim.
The most recent attack it lists happened at 01:45 UTC on Wednesday. An unknown projectile hit a tanker 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman. The crew put out the fire, and all are safe.
The absence of a notice doesn’t prove nothing happened. The AP noted that UKMTO has seen new reluctance by some shippers to report incidents.
Even without Iran’s figure, October has seen the most reported attacks on commercial shipping since March, the AP reports. By our count of UKMTO’s notices, it logged 29 attacks on merchant ships from October 2 to October 21. Nineteen were inside the Strait of Hormuz, mostly on tankers and container ships.
The Revolutionary Guard again threatened to hit US bases in the region if the US keeps guiding commercial ships through the strait, the AP reported.
Why diplomats are leaving Saudi Arabia
The departure order covers Saudi Arabia only. Attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, not by Iran directly, prompted it. On Wednesday, State ordered non-emergency staff and families at the Riyadh embassy and its consulates to leave, the AP reported.
The embassy’s security alert warns that the Houthi hostilities “have the potential to escalate rapidly beyond that immediate area.” US government employees now need special authorization from the chief of mission to use any Saudi airport.
State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott called reports of a wider Gulf evacuation “inaccurate” in a post on X, Anadolu Agency reported. Embassies elsewhere in the Gulf will see temporary staffing changes, the department said, according to the AP.
Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport had stayed shut since a Houthi attack on October 10. A few Saudi airlines flew from it again on Wednesday. Lufthansa and Air France have cancelled Riyadh flights through mid-November, the AP said.
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said debris from an intercepted drone killed two people at an Aramco-run oil field. Aramco also told staff to leave its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
We covered the Houthi strikes on Saudi airports when they began earlier this month.
Two outlets report strike plans for after Election Day
The New York Times reported late Wednesday that US and Israeli military planners have drawn up specific plans for renewed strikes. The target date is after the midterms. Unnamed US officials told the paper that planning for a “short but intensive” operation is progressing, CNBC reported. The Times story sits behind a paywall, so we relied on CNBC’s account of it.
NPR reported a similar account from its own source on Thursday. A person briefed on the planning said the two countries are preparing for a possible attack in early November.
That person said Israel had wanted to strike in mid-October, before its own election on October 27, but President Trump objected. The person also said the buildup could serve to pressure Iran into a deal.
Trump said on October 8 that the US would not attack Iran before the midterms, Axios reported. Late Wednesday he told reporters the US is not negotiating with Iran. “Most people seem to think it’s after the election,” he said. He added that something “one way or the other” would happen “fairly soon.”
The US is sending a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops to the region, the AP reported. That carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, left San Diego on September 27, The War Zone reported. The Navy did not announce the departure.
US officials told The National and the Wall Street Journal it should arrive by the end of November. Earlier this month, a report said the US was weighing the “Mother of All Bombs” for possible Iran strikes.
“We are just as prepared for diplomacy as we are for war,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state media on Thursday, NPR reported.
How the war got here
The pattern since February has been that each attempt at a deal has collapsed and the strait has stayed contested:
- February 28: US and Israeli strikes start the war, killing Iran’s supreme leader, according to NPR.
- June: Washington and Tehran sign a deal that falls apart within days, the AP reports.
- July: The US tightens its blockade of Iranian ports, and fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia resumes in mid-month.
- Late September: Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to end the war and reopen the strait within seven days, the AP reports. Attacks on ships have increased since.
What it means for gas prices
Pump prices have not yet caught up with this week’s oil jump. Regular gasoline averaged $4.284 a gallon nationally on October 19, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly survey.
That’s $1.35, or about 46%, above the $2.937 recorded on February 23, the last survey before the war. Prices peaked this year at $4.50 in mid-May. They have now fallen for four straight weeks from $4.478 on September 21.
Thursday’s oil move came after that survey. US crude briefly broke $100 a barrel, CNBC reported. Brent now sits at the top of its October range of $97 to $112, according to the AP. The next EIA survey, due October 27, will be the first to reflect it.
Gasoline now takes about half the share of disposable income it did a decade ago, David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors told CNBC. That leaves households less exposed to an oil shock than in past decades, he argued.
What Americans traveling to the Gulf should know
The State Department rates most Gulf countries at Level 3, “Reconsider travel,” according to its travel advisory data on Thursday:
| Destination | State Department level |
|---|---|
| Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon | Level 4: Do not travel |
| Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Israel | Level 3: Reconsider travel |
The Saudi Arabia advisory cites the risk of drone and missile attacks by Iran and the Houthis. As of Thursday, State had not reissued it to reflect the departure order.
The embassy says airports in Jeddah and Dammam are operating with some delays. All land borders, including the causeway to Bahrain, are open. It also warns that Saudi authorities have detained US citizens for photographing impact sites.
State urges Americans in the region to enroll in its Smart Traveler Enrollment Program. Its 24-hour line is 1-888-407-4747 from the US and Canada, or +1-202-501-4444 from abroad.
Israel votes on October 27, and the US on November 3. Before then, watch for any UKMTO notice on the overnight claims and a reissued Saudi advisory.
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