Israel’s election produced no majority on Tuesday night, and the count so far has not changed that. With 72.4% of ballot boxes counted at 10:03 a.m. Wednesday Israel time (4:03 a.m. ET), partial Israel election results from the Central Elections Committee gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc 54 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, The Times of Israel reported. The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot had 48, and the Arab-majority parties held 18, after Ra’am gained two.
A government needs 61, and both men are claiming the edge. Netanyahu said “the Likud party is the largest party – nobody can compete with us,” Al Jazeera reported. Eisenkot said the exit polls “indicate a complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and the October 7 government,” according to NBC News.
Our profile of Gadi Eisenkot covers the former army chief’s record. For Americans, the outcome decides who Washington deals with on the Iran war, Gaza and the next long-term military aid deal. Here is how the next few weeks work.
The count is moving, and soldiers’ ballots come last
The partial count has swung a long way overnight. Election-night exit polls gave Eisenkot’s side 52 to 53 seats and Netanyahu’s about 50, the AP reported via PBS. With 25.2% of boxes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc briefly showed 63 seats, a majority, according to The Times of Israel. It slipped to 59 at 32.5%, 57 at 41.9%, 56 at 55.4% and 54 at 72.4%.
The committee itself warns that “figures published during the count are partial and subject to change,” NBC News reported. The biggest unknown is the double-envelope vote. Officials expected more than 650,000 of them from soldiers, diplomats, displaced residents, hospital patients and others voting away from home, Ynet reported.
The committee counts them after the regular ballots.
Small parties matter too. A list needs 3.25% of the vote to win seats. In the 10:03 a.m. count, Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists had 2.7% and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel had 1.7%, both below the line. The Jerusalem Post noted that their failure could further complicate Netanyahu’s bid for a majority.
The committee estimates it will publish final results at noon Thursday, Oct. 29 (6 a.m. ET), according to Ynet. The legal deadline is Wednesday, Nov. 4. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999.
Herzog picks who goes first, and it doesn’t have to be the biggest party
Once results are published, President Isaac Herzog consults every party elected to the Knesset, and each recommends a candidate. Basic Law: The Government requires him to hand one lawmaker the task “within seven days of the publication of the election results.” The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on Nov. 10, whether or not talks are finished, Ynet reported.
Herzog is not required to choose the leader of the largest party, NBC News explained. The test is who has the best chance of building a coalition. Seat totals count but “are not binding,” Ofer Kenig of the Israel Democracy Institute wrote in 2022. In 2009, Kadima won one more seat than Likud, yet President Shimon Peres gave the task to Netanyahu.
That matters this week because the exit polls put Likud first, at 27 to 28 seats, with Eisenkot’s Yashar at 21, The Jerusalem Post reported. Netanyahu’s “largest party” message is a pitch to Herzog as much as to voters. The president will instead count recommendations, and neither bloc currently reaches 61 of them.
Going first is a real advantage. “In almost all cases, the leader who was given the first chance to form a government succeeded,” Kenig wrote. He listed three exceptions: Shimon Peres in 1990, Livni in 2008 and Netanyahu in 2019.
The coalition clock, and how Israel could vote again
The nominee gets 28 days, and Herzog can extend that by up to 14 more, under section 8 of the Basic Law. If that fails, he can give a second lawmaker 28 days with no extension. After that, a majority of lawmakers have 21 days to ask him in writing to name someone, who then gets 14 days. If every attempt fails, the Knesset is treated as dissolved, and a new election is held on the last Tuesday before 90 days are up.
We ran the dates. Suppose results come out on the Nov. 4 deadline and Herzog uses his full seven days. The first nominee would then face a Dec. 9 deadline, or Dec. 23 with the full extension. If every stage ran its full length and failed, the next election would land around May 25, 2027.
Netanyahu stays in office as caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in, Ynet reported. Israelis went to the polls five times between 2019 and 2022, according to NBC News. The last deadlock broke in 2021, when Netanyahu failed to form a government and Yair Lapid then succeeded, IDI’s Kenig wrote.
Bennett, Liberman, the Haredi parties and Ra’am hold the keys
On the current count, Netanyahu needs seven more seats and Eisenkot needs 13. Neither bloc can get there without crossing a line it has drawn in public. Our guide to how Israel’s election works sets out the parties in each camp.
Eisenkot’s math runs through the Arab-majority parties, which both blocs have so far refused to take as partners, the AP reported. His own allies disagree on that. Naftali Bennett and Lapid, who run on a joint list, are unwilling to base a government on Arab parties’ votes or abstentions, and Avigdor Liberman “categorically rejects” the idea, The Jerusalem Post reported on Oct. 24. Eisenkot has floated a minority government if his side reached 58 or 59 seats. On the current count, it is well short of that.
Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas said on election day: “Our vote will change the government.” Netanyahu, meanwhile, accused Arab voters of “stealing the elections,” and Abbas called that a “scare tactic,” according to Al Jazeera.
Netanyahu’s math runs the other way, through a defection from parties that campaigned to replace him. Liberman said on election morning that “the era of Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox rule must come to an end,” The Times of Israel reported. The ultra-Orthodox parties are just as fixed. Shas leader Aryeh Deri said Shas won’t back a government that doesn’t preserve exemptions from military service for Haredi men. Eisenkot has promised “national service for all,” The Times of Israel reported, so that door looks shut for him.
What Washington is watching: Iran, Gaza and the aid deal
President Donald Trump took a side. In an Oct. 18 post, he said Netanyahu “has been a Great Warrior Prime Minister.” He added: “If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi,” then “America will have to do this work ourselves,” the AP reported. On Wednesday, Trump said, “I think when the endorsement went out, it had helped him a lot,” according to The Times of Israel.
Iran is the biggest stake. The US-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28 and is now eight months old, and the US military’s Central Command estimates it has cost at least $47.1 billion as of mid-October, CBS News reported. Netanyahu campaigned on the claim that “Gadi Eisenkot will not strike Iran.” Early Wednesday he spoke of a “historic, one-time opportunity along with our friend President Trump” to remove the Iranian threat, The Times of Israel reported.
On Gaza, Eisenkot supports a long-term ceasefire and has vowed to remove Hamas from power within 18 months of taking office, NBC News reported. The Palestinian Ministry of Health says about 74,500 people have been killed since Oct. 7, 2023.
Then there is money. The current US military aid agreement pledges $38 billion over fiscal years 2019 to 2028, subject to appropriations, and runs through Sept. 30, 2028, according to the Congressional Research Service. Whoever forms this government will likely be the one negotiating its successor with the Trump administration.
The next fixed point is the Central Elections Committee’s final count, expected at noon Thursday in Israel. Herzog’s consultations follow once the results are official.